The PROMESS model : meso projection of ages for ceasing employment and retiring

The PROMESS model (MESo PROjection of the Retirement System) is a projection model developed by the DREES during the first semester of 2010 to estimate the age distribution in people ceasing employment, ceasing the validation of quarters and the first time receiving a retirement benefits for those in the generations currently on the labour market. It allows us to make projections until the horizon of 2030 as to the different indicators deducting from these distributions : the amount of the retirees, seniors’ employment rate, etc. PROMESS is a model covering all retirement schemes and the entire population : it applies to the ensemble of the population, to those born in France or abroad, without distinguishing people according to the schemes to which they are affiliated over the course of their careers. It is based on two sources of inter-scheme statistical data from administrative records : the inter-scheme retirement sample (échantillon interrégimes de retraités - EIR) and the inter-scheme contributor sample (échantillon interrégimes de cotisants - EIC).

The model was created to study and modelize the trajectories of those exiting employment and commencing retirement beginning at age 54, taking into account the entitlements already accumulated through the model’s base year and the legislation applied to each generation.

This working paper presents the principal characteristics and assumptions of the PROMESS model, its limits and evolution as well as some results and comparisons.

— Voir aussi la version française Le modèle PROMESS : Projection « méso » des âges de cessation d’emploi et de départ à la retraite

Référence : Patrick Aubert, Cindy Duc, Bruno Ducoudré, 2013, « The PROMESS model - Meso projection of ages for ceasing employment and retiring », Document de travail, Série Études et recherche, n°127, Drees, juillet

Mots-clefs : retirement behaviour, pensions, microsimulation